With the election of GOP Mineola Mayor Jack Martins to the state Senate replacing Democratic Sen. Craig Johnson, return of Republican Party control under Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos is temporary at best.
Crossover Democrats voting Republican continue following jobs or retire out of state or succumb to old age. GOP outreach to new Caribbean, Hispanic, Asian and other immigrant groups or middle class African Americans has failed. GOP party registration is aging and declining in numbers.
The last Republican stronghold – control of the Senate may fall after the next reapportionment effective in 2012 based upon the 2010 census. This will drive the final nail into the Republican Party coffin. With 2.5 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, the GOP doesn’t have enough voters to gerrymander district lines for maintaining control.
A Republican majority depends on a New York City contingent. They have lost Guy Vellela (Bronx), Roy Goodman (Manhattan), Serf Maltese (Queens) and in 2010 Frank Padavan (Queens) leaving them with only Marty Golden (Brooklyn) and Andrew Lanza (Staten Island). Lost seats are gone forever. Democrats come out of New York City controlling 22 of 24 seats making it difficult for Skelos to retain a majority.
All it will take over the next two years is either Gov. Cuomo appointing one GOP Senator to a cabinet post (Remember the previous Republican Senator Mike Balboni resigning to join the Democratic Spitzer administration. Subsequently, Johnson won the seat in a special election), an indictment or one of the many aging GOP Senators in their 70s or 80s becoming seriously ill and unable to attend sessions or succumbing to old age.
With a fair reapportionment in 2012, Republicans will be represented in the Senate, but continuing in control is questionable.
Larry Penner
Great Neck
