There’s an expression that “statistics don’t lie, but liars use statistics.”
While this is true, it is difficult to make a cogent political argument without citing statistics. However, these are often subject to more than one interpretation.
Let’s look at mass incarceration stats.
The U.S. makes up 5 percent of the world’s population, but houses 25 percent of the world’s prisoners. This tells us something, but what?
Conservatives might argue that justice demands lengthy, mandatory sentences; in short, that severe punishment works.
Progressives counter that prisons should focus on rehabilitation and that building and operating prisons is lucrative and enriches those engaged in that endeavor.
Another statistic progressives cite is that there are thirteen states which have successfully reduced prison populations while crime in these jurisdictions has declined.
Let’s examine these statistics more closely. It turns out that one in three black men will serve time behind bars.
Conservatives will argue that minority crime explains our high incarceration rate. Progressives counter that we live in a racist society in which minorities are more likely to be caught up in the criminal justice system.
Howard Zinn in his classic “A People’s History of the United States” makes the case as follows:
“The poorer you were the more likely you were to end up in jail….The rich did not have to commit crimes to get what they wanted; the laws were on their side. But when the rich did commit crimes, they often were not prosecuted, and if they were they could get out on bail, hire clever lawyers [and] get better treatment from judges.”
So, there are many interesting stats about incarceration, including one from the Brennan Center for Justice: “There are 2,300,000 jailed Americans. That is a statistical fact. How you explain it, depends upon your world view.”
I personally love statistics and would not think of making a case for my beliefs without using them. No social scientist worth his salt would do less, but we must always keep in mind that statistics without a Weltanschauung (world view) are not very useful.
As Mark Twain pointed out: “Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are pliable.”
There is another good example of a group citing statistics to bolster their cause and raise money.
“Population Connection” is an organization devoted to ameliorating the problem of overpopulation. Their fact sheet includes the following: In less than 10 years global population should surpass 8 billion; half of all pregnancies in the U.S. are unintended; one-half of all plant and animal species may be extinct by the end of the century; 225 million women across the globe lack access to contraception; one in nine girls in the developing world is married before age 15; more than 2.2 billion people worldwide live in poverty; and 47,000 die every year from unsafe abortions.
There are many dots which need connecting if these statistics are to make sense.
But one need not be a mathematical genius to see that Population Connection sees a relationship between poverty, lack of contraception, archaic cultural practices, and the threat to our very survival. They are not sanguine about prospects for the future, but as an advocacy group they are fighting the good fight.
To sum up, too many politicians and pundits voice opinions without supporting evidence. That is where statistics come in.
But a cautionary note: A recent survey of North American males found that 42 percent were overweight, 34 percent were critically obese and 10 percent ate the survey.
Dr. Hal Sobel
Great Neck
