There is still more to “LIRR third track plan revives criticism” (Noah Manskar — Jan. 8).
Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s recent announcement in support of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority Long Island Rail Road Main Line Third Track project missed significant details.
His claim that he will have the MTA/LIRR fast track this project for $1.5 billion is wishful thinking. The current cost estimate is based upon previous older planning feasibility studies, with little environmental, design and engineering efforts necessary to validate any actual construction costs.
They will be refined as the project progresses beyond the planning and environmental phases into real and final design efforts.
Value engineering, which is a process used to reduce costs, will be used during the final design phase.
Unfortunately, history has shown that estimated costs for construction usually trend upwards as projects mature toward 100 percent final design. Progression of final design refines the detailed scope of work necessary to support construction.
The anticipated final potential cost will never be known until completion. Costs will be further refined by award of construction contracts followed by any unforeseen site conditions and change orders to the base contracts during the course of construction.
Cuomo is only proposing seed money of $7 million to support planning, preliminary design and engineering along with environmental work within the proposed 2015- 2019 MTA Five Year Capital Program.
Don’t be surprised if the balance of $1.5 billion is higher to support property acquisition, final design and engineering.
Along with actual construction costs, it may be spread out between the 2020-2024 and 2025-2029 future Five Year Capital programs. (Remember that LIRR East Side Access started at $3.5 billion in 1999 and has grown to $10.8 billion today.
Funding to date has been spread out over three Five Year Capital programs and will end up being programmed over five Five Year Capital programs upon completion in December 2022 or later).
Will the MTA LIRR use local or federal funding or a combination of both to come up with $1.5 billion?
Each year, the MTA receives over $1 billion in formula funding from the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration.
These funds account for 35 percent of the MTA’s Capital Program.
In addition, over the past ten years they received several billion in U.S. DOT FTA New Starts funding for both East Side Access and Second Avenue subway. It also does not include several billion in U.S. DOT FTA Sandy relief and recovery funding. The MTA allocates 15 percent or $150 million of over $1 billion in annual formula transit funding from U.S. DOT FTA for the LIRR capital program.
These dollars are usually used for routine state of good repair and safety projects. Reprogramming these dollars to support Main Line Third Track would impact the FTA funded LIRR state of good repair and safety capital projects program.
Another option is for the MTA to enter LIRR’s Main Line Third Track Project into U.S. DOT’S FTA New Starts program.
This could result in LIRR Main Line Third Track competing against 2nd Avenue Subway Phase 2, Metro North Penn Station Access, Staten Island North Shore Bus Rapid Transit, Queens Woodhaven Blvd. Bus Rapid Transit, New Penn Station and other MTA operating agencies such as NYCT or Metro North major capital improvement projects for funding in future Capital Programs.
The MTA, Amtrak, Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, New Jersey Transit, Nassau County and New York City DOT are all attempting to qualify many other projects for the same federal New Starts program.
There are many projects from the Metropolitan New York Region that may be competing against each other.
Dozens of other potential New Starts projects are being championed by many other senators and Congress members. The requests far exceed any available New Starts funding. There will be few winners and many losers.
Should MTA LIRR elect to pursue federal funding, they will have to comply with the National Environmental Protect Act.
Depending upon whether FTA determines that Main Line Third Track requires either an Environmental Assessment or more likely a full blown Environmental Impact Statement, completion of this process can easily take from one to two years.
Remember that there is significant local community opposition whose concerns will have to be addressed during the environmental review process.
With increasing service on the Main Line, there will less opportunity for north and south bound traffic including police, fire, ambulance, automobile and commercial vehicles along with Nassau Inter County Express buses to proceed when the crossing gates are down.
Traffic could back up by blocks. What remedial actions will the MTA/LIRR provide to address this issue? Once FTA issues an environmental finding, the project will proceed from 30 percent to 100 percent final design and engineering. Final design and engineering could easily take two years.
Add another year for the procurement process to be completed from development of bid specifications, contract advertisement and award. Actual construction work might not start until 2019, 2020 or later.
Over the past 30 years, estimates for construction of Main Line Third Track have grown from $600 million to $1.5 billion today. Governor Cuomo admitted that by reducing the amount of private property acquisition, virtually all construction will take place along the existing right-of-way. He went on to say that this will result in increasing construction costs. No one knows how many additional millions will be required above the $1.5 billion to cover costs of construction within the existing right of way, buy outs for home owners and business properties, noise abatement and sound barriers along with additional safety improvements at grade crossings. Don’t forget LIRR force account support to provide flagging protection. This is necessary to afford Third Party contractors safe access who will perform construction within an active right of way corridor. Imagine how many times per hour they will have to stop work when a train passes by? How much construction work will have to take place evenings, overnight and on weekends when there is less activity on the Main Line? How will this be addressed in the environmental review process? What will the costs be for construction of additional commuter parking and Nassau Inter County Express (NICE) bus services? Both will be needed to accommodate thousands of additional new riders who are either bound for Grand Central Terminal, NYC based reverse commuters to jobs and colleges or local residents traveling between stations within Main Line Nassau and Suffolk county stations? Ask anyone at the MTA or LIRR to share with you a detailed project budget, which would include the estimated costs for each project component. Ditto for any project implementation schedule from start to finish. The current proposed project budget is nothing more than a number written on the back of an envelope. There may not even be a detailed project implementation schedule.
Remember the Ronkokoma Double Tracking project? It will cost $450 million to complete double tracking on the LIRR Ronkonkama Line between Hicksville and Ronkonkoma.
Due to insufficient funding, completion of double tracking was dropped in the 1980s when this branch was electrified to save money.
Fast forward to today. Completion of double tracking which is in 100 percent of the existing right-of-way is estimated to cost $450 million today and take four years for completion. It would have cost far less to finish this work thirty years ago.
Construction of Main Line Third Track is much more complicated than Ronkonkoma Double Tracking. This will probably result in a longer duration period for completion of construction.
Main Line Third Track was first proposed almost 30 years ago and could have been funded and completed under previous Five Year Capital Programs.
Costs would have easily been several hundred million less than today’s estimates.
After completion of double tracking forecast by 2018, Ronkonkoma Branch riders will enjoy off peak 30 minute service. However, there will be virtually no additional rush hour trains in the AM to Penn Station or PM from Penn Station to Ronkonkoma. This is because there is no capacity for running additional trains during rush hour between Hicksville and Floral Park on the existing Main Line two track system.
Several hundred million in additional funding is needed to support electrification on the Port Jefferson branch from Huntington to Port Jefferson, Ronkonkoma line from Ronkonkoma to Yaphank and on the Montauk line from Babylon to Speonk.
Thousands of daily LIRR riders from diesel territory branches (including those commuting from stations east of Huntington to Port Jefferson, east of Mineola to Oyster Bay, east of Babylon to Speonk or Montauk and east of Ronkonkoma to Greenport) are subject to significant delays on a regular basis when problems occur on the Main Line between Floral Park and Hicksville.
Construction of a third track could provide operational flexibility when there is a sick passenger, mechanical, signal, power, track or other problems. With an extra track and interlocking’s at key intermediate points between Hicksville and Floral Park, express and local trains would be able to bypass stalled trains.
You will never see the full benefits of investing $10.8 billion in direct funding for construction of LIRR’s East Side Access to Grand Central Terminal without a Third Track. While Penn Station has the West Side storage yard to hold a significant amount of equipment, there will be no similar capacity at Grand Central Terminal.
Main Line third track is needed for the growing reverse commuter market. It is also needed so trains can return east to provide equipment for additional west bound service during AM Peak periods. Ditto for the evening PM service out of Grand Central Terminal.
Don’t be surprised if East Side Access to Grand Central Terminal is open to the public in 2023 or 2024 rather than the current forecasted date of December 2022.
Opening day service may not include running the full compliment of 24 trains per hour. Without Main Line Third Track, the LIRR may not have the flexibility to move equipment back and forth between Grand Central Terminal and all eight branches east of Jamaica.
As a result, you will not see a compete return on the billions invested in East Side Access over several decades.
Larry Penner
Great Neck
(Larry Penner is a transportation historian and advocate who previously worked in the transportation field for 31 years).
