There is more to the recent Albany Metropolitan Transportation Authority Capital Program Review Board approval of a $3 billion 2015 to 2019 MTA Five Year Capital Plan Amendment increasing the total dollars from $29 billion to $32 billion.
It included $700 million more for Second Ave. subway Phase 2.
This raised the overall MTA financial commitment for Phase 2 from $1.035 billion to $1,735 billion to support preliminary environmental, design, engineering and utility relocation work for Phase 2 north from 96th St. on to 125th St.
There is still the need of $4.265 billion in total funding for actual construction of Phase 2.
The MTA will have to find a minimum of $2.265 billion in local dollars in the next MTA five-year 2020 to 2024 Capital Program.
This would bring the total local funding commitment up to $4 billion.
This is necessary for the MTA to count on the Federal Transit Administration New Starts program providing $2 billion in additional funding for a total of $6 billion.
These dollars are necessary to fully fund Second Ave. subway Phase 2.
Add $15 billion more down the road under 2025 to 2029 and future MTA Capital Plans for Phases 3 & 4 to complete the full length of Second Avenue subway south to Hanover Square.
There is no legal federal commitment to fund Second Ave. Subway Phase 2.
All the Federal Transit Administration provided to the MTA in December 2016 was grant permission to enter the project into the New Starts Program Project Development Phase.
The initial approval of the proposal to enter the “project development” phase represents only the first step, and the project still faces myriad hurdles.
Completion of this work includes the FTA issuing an environmental finding, along with reaching agreements with the MTA concerning proposed project budget, scope and milestones.
This averages several years.
This is followed by the project being given permission by FTA to advance to the next stage known as “final engineering.”
Progression of final design and engineering from 30% to 100% averages several more years.
This could include review and approval by various city, state and federal permitting or regulatory agencies along with MTA HQ, MTA Office of Capital Construction and NYC Transit financial, user, operations and maintenance groups.
Successful completion of the New Starts process results in the federal government’s entering into a Full Funding Grant Agreement.
This third step can average several more years.
This is a legally binding commitment for providing federal funding.
It is also subject to Congressional recommendation and Presidential approval for inclusion of the project within future annual authorization and appropriation of funding under FTA New Starts budgets to provide financing.
The MTA hopes to begin construction of the Second Ave. subway Phase 2 in 2019.
Don’t count on it.
How many years will it take to complete the NEPA environmental review process?
This is one of many requirements under the FTA New Starts program.
Which neighborhood will want to host any entrance for both a platform to support a tunnel boring machine and removal of construction debris?
Construction of the new Second Ave. subway 125th Street station will be underneath both the Metro North Park Ave. Viaduct and NYC Transit Lexington Ave. subway.
Will there be any speed restrictions for Metro North or NYC Transit Lexington Ave. subway trains during construction?
Will there be the need for any service outages?
Will any Metro North or NYC Transit employees known as force account be required during construction?
They will want to protect both their operations and physical structures from vibrations and other potential adverse impacts.
The goal would be to obtain an agreement between FTA and MTA for fully funding the project.
MTA is in competition between its own operating agencies and against other transit agencies around the nation.
There are 98 other Senators and 434 Congress members supporting their own New Starts projects.
Why would FTA approve any agreement without a guarantee from the MTA that the matching local share of $4 billion including $2.265 billion balance (which has yet to be found) is secure and in place.
The only proof is inclusion of this project within the next 2020 to 2024 Five Year Capital Program approved by both the MTA and Albany Capital Program Review Board.
Previous MTA Capital Plans have been approved one or more years late.
Based on past history, the next MTA Capital Plan may not be approved until 2021.
The MTA would not risk advertising multi-billion construction project bids without secure funding being in place.
Any procurement process could take six months to a year.
Actual contracts for full construction could end up being awarded in 2022.
If Phase 1 took ten years to complete from the original 2007 contract award to January 2017, Phase 2 might not be completed until 2030 or later.
Regardless of the funding source, Second Avenue Subway Phase 2 will end up competing against many worthy projects in the next MTA Five Year 2020 – 2024 Capital Plan. As a result, coming to a consensus on what to fund in the next Capital Program Plan will be even more difficult. Second Avenue Subway Phase 2 will be the largest single project proposed for funding.
Larry Penner
(Larry Penner is a transportation historian and advocate who previously worked 31 years for the US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration Region 2 NY Office.)
