The number of adults 25 to 34 living in Nassau County declined by nearly a quarter from 1990 to 2016 – from 430,400 to 327,250.
And nearly half – 44 percent – of the millennials who are living here are living at home, for which you can thank to college debt, stagnant wages and Nassau’s high cost of living.
The result: homeownership in the county is down and the average Nassau County resident is older and grayer.
Then add in the fact that were it not for immigrants Nassau County’s overall population would be declining and throw in the Trump administration’s attitude to immigrants
And it’s hello, Houston we have a problem.
The problem, of course, is that a declining population means fewer people buying and selling stuff and fewer people paying taxes. Which means a higher tax burden for those who remain.
And a declining population of millennials means a brain drain for the county.
There are solutions – one of which was offered at two events last week.
One was a meeting on downtown revitalization hosted by William Warner, the mayor of Great Neck Estates and the new head of the Great Neck Village Officials Association.
The other was a panel discussion on the county’s demographics and the upcoming census hosted by Blank Slate Media that included Nassau Comptroller Jack Schnirman, whose office has issued several recent reports on the county’s demographics with the warning that getting older and losing young people will cause the county’s tax base to decline.
At both events, the topic of affordable mixed-used housing – retail stores on the ground floor and apartments above them –, played a prominent role in the discussion.
The only problem is that the idea runs head-on into Long Island’s culture of single-family homes that is reflected in local zoning laws that don’t permit mixed-used development.
This means that developers seeking to build mixed-used projects often must get the approval of local governments and, in many instances, overcome public opposition.
That can take time, which means expense.
Mark Sturmer, an architect based in Greenvale, told the meeting of mayors and other public officials in Great Neck that many developers look to do work outside Nassau County to avoid the headaches and additional cost.
A night later, Donald Monti, the president and CEO of Renaissance Downtowns USA, told a similar story to panelists at the community forum, stressing the cost of red tape placed in the way of developers.
“Businesses and corporations want the same thing that the stock market wants. They want certainty, they don’t want to come here and think they’re going to go through three years of approvals and get Article 78. They say, “you know what, why am I here?” Monti said. “Look at what Amazon did, they said ‘see you later’ as soon as the kitchen got hot.”
And, yes, developers and architects often have a somewhat adversarial relationship with government boards overseeing developments.
But as they say on the playing field just look at the scoreboard.
When Mike Bloomberg was mayor of New York City, he and his chief lieutenant Daniel Doctoroff rezoned large swaths of the city with little resistance and great results.
The miniature metropolis known as Long Island City where apartment buildings seem to spring up daily was once an area filled with vacant warehouses. Then the city bought the properties during Bloomberg’s effort to attract a summer Olympics to New York and changed the zoning when that effort failed.
In Nassau County, with a county government, two cities, three towns and 56 villages, this is simply not possible.
To which many would say good, we don’t want to be another New York City.
To which we ask, do you really want to pay higher taxes as the population declines and young adults looking to buy their first homes move away?
With some leadership from public officials, there seems to be a compromise on the table.
Three- or four-story mixed-use developments in business zones would not turn our communities into “another Queens” – as some say.
In fact, they would be the impetus for developers to replace aging buildings housing retail stores with newer, more attractive structures that bring younger residents and shoppers.
Rezone business districts across the county to permit these type of structures without a long and costly approval process.
And where appropriate permit even larger structures – in exchange for public amenities paid for by developers.
This effort will require a planning process that involves the entire community – from government officials to civic associations.
Yes, that is no easy task. But it is a formula that has already been used with success in places such as Mineola and Farmingdale.
Last week, the Great Neck Village Officials Association took a step in that direction when it began talking about how the nine villages there could work together on a plan to revitalize Great Neck’s business district.
The meeting was not without its doubters. But more importantly, most attendees recognized that Nassau County is no longer the place it was after the Second World War and changes need to be made.
Otherwise, will the last person out of the county please shut the lights.
