Politics is a business that takes numerous twists and turns. What is unpopular one day can become popular years later. A failed candidate can make a comeback. A winning candidate can turn out to be a loser years later. Of all the ironies in national politics, the health care law has now risen to the top of the list.
A few short years ago, over 50 Democratic members of Congress went down to defeat because they supported Obamacare, which is properly called the Affordable Care Act. Voters were told by Republican candidates that the ACA would destroy America and was the closest thing to socialism. Many competent and forward thinking legislators lost their seats because they voted for Obamacare.
Now four years later, like Lazarus, who is reputed to have been brought back from the dead by Jesus, the ACA may be the main reason Democrats take back the House of Representatives on Nov. 6. Despite the continuous effort by President Trump to wipe out the ACA, it has not only survived, but has become a vital law for millions of Americans.
I still vividly remember Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell pledging to destroy the ACA during his tenure and making it the cornerstone of the Republican agenda. McConnell kept his word and almost passed a Senate bill repealing the ACA until the late Sen. John McCain cast the deciding vote to save the ACA.
If you do a random sampling of Congressional races around the country, one of the key issues in all of those races is the ACA and which party is going to do more to save it. The Republican Party never anticipated that the ACA could become their Achilles heel. To cover their members going into this year’s election, a bill was introduced that supposedly keeps coverage alive, but the bill does nothing for people with pre-existing conditions.
The fact that health care, which was once a toxic issue for Democrats has now become its pivotal issue on Election Day is somewhat remarkable but not surprising. Students of politics will remember that House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill once advised President Reagan that Social Security and Medicare are the “third rail of politics.” Reagan was being asked by Republican leaders to raise the Social Security age eligibility. Reagan the Republican, paid attention to O’Neill, the Democrat, and resisted doing anything to the program.
Fast forward to President George H.W. Bush. His advisors were urging him to let Social Security recipients make their own decisions on how to invest their moneys following the model of 401-k plans. Bush pushed the idea hard and didn’t understand why the outside world didn’t buy into it. His son, President George H. Bush, promoted the idea of creating 401-k plans out of Social Security moneys and that idea again fell flat.
Despite the fact that health care is now under debate around the country, President Trump is doing everything in his power to destroy the ACA. His latest ploy is to shut down the ACA website during the upcoming enrollment period in an effort to stop more people from signing up. So oddly, many of the voters who put Trump in office would suffer greatly at the hands of Trump, if any of his plans were successful.
Twelve Republican governors are currently pushing a lawsuit that if successful would find other ways to stop the ACA. They are challenging parts of the law that subsidizes insurance companies for covering people with serious health issues. By early next year, that lawsuit will reach the Supreme Court and no one can predict which way the justices will rule.
There is no doubt that the fate of the ACA will be decided in 2019. If it survives, no politician will have to guts to keep up the effort to destroy it. If it is abolished, it will be fascinating to watch President Trump campaign for re-election in those states that helped elect him.
