I
am not in the business of giving free advice to the Republican Party but somehow I can’t resist based on the current political climate in this country.
To say that the campaign for president is toxic is an understatement. But any local Republican running for office in 2016 can’t divorce them from the tone of the current national campaign, which could do enormous damage to the two party systems here at home.
I know the vast majority of the local Republican elected officials after many years of being on the political scene.
I consider them highly competent and people of good will. Every party has a few nut jobs,but overall the people who run our local governments are very dedicated and hard working.
2016 promises to be a very challenging year.
For the nine state senators from Long Island whose majority is in the balance, a national party that is anti-immigrant, anti-spending and just about against everything else,is a threat to their continued power in Albany.
One can argue that local officials have nothing to do with the craziness of Washington but next year there is no way that there won’t be a spillover of nastiness if you look at the current Republican field of candidates.
If the Republican nominee for president is running on a platform of “throw the bums out” and knocking the establishment it is hard to separate their message from the 2016 candidates at all levels.
Another challenge for the Republicans will be based on whom the Democratic Party candidate for president will be.
Despite having a rough summer,nothing serious has happened that will block Hillary Clinton from being the nominee. I have read all the polls that show that voters don’t trust her or have misgivings but that is now and next year may be a different game.
Socialist Bernie Sanders or Vice President Joe Biden don’t stir the women’s’ vote like Hillary.
If the Republican Party chooses a Trump or a Scott Walker, the Democrats in New York State will have a field day.
Keep in mind that enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans in New York by a 8 to 1 margin.
The more Republicans that are turned off by the party nominee ,the more votes a qualified local candidate could lose.
To assume that all of the local voters will ignore the national climate and just stay loyal to the incumbents is a risky business.
It is a fact that the Republican Party controls the vast majority of the local governments outside of New York City.
A nasty national campaign is a challenge to any incumbent running in 2016. If traditional Republicans are turned off by the direction their party is going the loyalists don’t vote for the Democrat,they just stay home.
You can tell me that is just wishful thinking by some Democrat but I have seen plenty of years when Democratic voters sat out elections because they didn’t like their party’s national pick.
So aside from laying out this grim scenario for the Grand Old Party what’s the next step?
Just assume that the national party will be picking a losing candidate. If you think people like Ohio Gov. John Kasich is going to save local party it is a bad guess. This time around it’s not the candidate but the national ugliness that will filter down.
If I was planning a race for next year’s election I would begin a careful campaign to tell my voters that am not connected to any of the campaign promises of the national party.
There are hundreds of thousands of children of immigrants who live and vote in New York.
They are upwardly mobile and hold good jobs in our schools and businesses. Those votes are not favoring the Republican Party.
There are many intelligent voters in both parties who are willing to listen and choose wisely.
But any Republican incumbent who assumes that all the voters will just stick with the local guy or girl is wrong this time around.
