Nassau County residents can expect up to a $360 million, or 28.20 percent, decrease in sales tax revenue for the 2020 fiscal year due to the coronavirus, according to the latest analysis conducted by the office of Nassau County Comptroller Jack Schnirman.
According to the analysis, sent out by the comptroller’s office on Monday, the county had been on pace to achieve revenue growth from last year’s sales tax. The growth includes enhanced internet sales tax as of June 2019, an addition that has mitigated a small percentage of the loss, according to the analysis.
The analysis also included a hypothetical scenario which takes a second wave of the virus into account. According to the analysis, the county could lose $665 million to $1 billion in sales tax revenue in 2020 and 2021.
“COVID-19 has dealt the County economy an unprecedented gut punch and these numbers show the potential effect on County government,” Schnirman said in a statement. “Based upon our available data, our new sophisticated modeling tool currently projects worse consequences than previously anticipated.”
The analysis will continue to provide projections of various models related to variable revenues, including sales tax and various fees, according to the comptroller’s office. The analysis is created with a modeling tool and the expertise of an outside accounting and consulting firm, according to the comptroller’s office.
County sales tax revenues, according to the comptroller’s office, were exceeding expectations in the first quarter of 2020 after performing strongly in 2019.
The ongoing analysis will provide projections and assess what potential measures may need to be considered to mitigate negative impacts on the government’s finances.
Schnirman described the projections as “truly troubling” in his statement. According to the analysis, the New York State Association of Counties reported in early May that the county would lose between 9.2 and 22.4 percent in sales tax revenue.
“These projections show potential low and high impact ranges based on a variety of factors that we will continue to monitor and reflect the best information we have at this time,” Schnirman said. “As new data and information are updated, the Comptroller’s Office will use this tool and other techniques to update these projections so that our County Executive and Legislature are armed with the data they need to make choices for residents.”
Sales tax has historically accounted for 40% of Nassau County’s revenue stream, making it the county’s largest source of county revenue, according to the comptroller’s office.
Nassau is expected to see a total revenue loss of $319.4 million from its $3.55 billion budget this year, according to a report from the county’s Office of Management and Budget.
“This is where fiscal discipline is actually on our side,” Nassau County Executive Laura Curran said about the expected losses. “We can apply the savings we got from being fiscally disciplined last year towards this crisis.”
